Expected P-value for s=0 in a ratio of Poisson means.
Here the background and its uncertainty are provided directly and
assumed to be from the double Poisson counting setup described in the
BinomialWithTau functions.
Normally one would know tau directly, but here it is determiend from
the background uncertainty. This is not strictly correct, but a useful
approximation.
This is based on code and comments from Bob Cousins
based on the following papers:
Statistical Challenges for Searches for New Physics at the LHC
Authors: Kyle Cranmer
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0511028
Measures of Significance in HEP and Astrophysics
Authors: J. T. Linnemann
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0312059
In short, this is the exact frequentist solution to the problem of
a main measurement x distributed as a Poisson around s+b and a sideband or
auxiliary measurement y distributed as a Poisson around \taub. Eg.
L(x,y|s,b,\tau) = Pois(x|s+b)Pois(y|\tau b)